Secrets of the CIA

If the UNGA accepts partition as the best solution of the Palestine problem, it is almost certain that armed hostilities will result in Palestine; that the social, economic, and political stability of the Arab world will be seriously disturbed; and that US commercial and strategic interests in the Near East will be dangerously jeopardized. Although the UNGA Ad Hoc Committee on Palestine is now considering establishing a Commission responsible to the Security Council to oversee the implementation of partition. it is unlikely that any sizable international police force will initially be available to the Commission. It is highly probable, therefore, that Jewish and Arab forces will clash over the attempt of the Jews to establish a Jewish state. Into this struggle between the Jews and Arabs of Palestine, the people of the Arab states will inevitably be drawn. Although most of the Arab governments will be reluctant to act in opposition to a UNGA decision and against the wishes of the major ...

a. The Arab Forces. (1) Character. The bulk of the Arab forces fighting the Zionists will be semi-trained guerrilla groups and loosely organized tribesmen. There are three main sources from which the Arabs can raise men to light in Palestine; (1) Arab quasi-military organizations led by ex-army officers, which will form the core of the guerrillas; (2) soldiers volunteering from the official armies of the Arab states to participate in action against the Jews; and (3) tribesmen, who will probably be the largest source. (2) Strength. It is estimated that the largest number of Arabs actively engaged against the Zionists at any one time will be between 100,000 and 200,000, including Palestine Arabs, volunteers, Beduin, and quasi-military organizations from the other Arab states. The armed strength of the Arabs in Palestine itself is estimated at 33,000, most of wham are members of such quasi-military organizations as the Futuwwa. the Najjada, the Arab Youth Organization, and the Ikhwan (Mos...

Arab nationalism is the strongest political force in the Arab world. It grew up in secret societies under Ottoman rule, came out into the open in the Arab Revolt of World War I, and has been the major factor in the independence movement in the Arab world ever since. The independence of all the Arab states in the Near East throws into high relief the continuing mandatory status of Palestine, Because of the strong ties between the various Arab states, political developments in any one country are of vital concern to Arabs everywhere- Palestinian independence is, consequently, the major aim not only of the Palestinian Arabs but also of Syrians, Lebanese, Iraqis, Transjordanians, Egyptians, and Saudi Arabians. It would be political suicide for any Arab government to ignore this situation. The signing of the Arab League Pact in March 1945 was a victory for the Arab nationalists in that it hastened the day when they could form their own bloc in relation to the other great powers of the world...

1. Introduction On 1 September 1947 the United Nations Special Committee on Palestine (UNSCOP) completed its report, and a majority of its members recommended partition as the best solution of the Palestine problem. In spite of violent opposition from the Arab states and the possibility that partition would not receive the necessary two-thirds majority in the UNGA, there is no doubt that this type of solution of the Palestine problem has been more seriously studied and more generally accepted than any other. It is important, therefore, to attempt to determine what the consequences of partition will be. The General Assembly Ad Hoc Committee on Palestine has presented to the GA a partition plan based on the majority report of UNSCOP. Although no final decisions have yet been reached on implementing and enforcing the eventual UN recommendation, certain basic assumptions can be made. If the UNGA (now debating the partition scheme) accepts by a two-thirds majority partition for Palestine, t...

Key Designation A. "Propaganda has failed; the UN has failed; the Arabs are divided. What is the use of empty threats by Farouk, Ibn Saud, etc., when there is nothing they can deliver? "Abdulla at least has a program. No one else is acting effectively. He is the lesser of evils, although he is not reliable himself. But he might stop the Jews. "Syria suffers from no program. There is profound discontent, a demand for a real economic program. Otherwise the country will be bankrupt and in chaos. "Only a Greater Syria will provide the economic means to enable the northern Arab countries to avoid revolution and escape Communist domination. This Greater Syria, however, should not be under the crown of Abdulla of Transjordan, but under the crown of the King of Iraq, with viceroys representing him in Syria, Transjordan, and Palestine. "The northern countries cannot hope for support from Egypt or Saudi Arabia from which they are separated physically by Israel and by the...

18 March 1949 Although Russia has officially sided with Israel she is actually on the side of disorder and hunger. Russia and her satellites armed Israel to an extent few people in the United States understand, but Communists are also active among the Arabs. They may upset the Iraq Government at any time; they have succeeded in establishing contact with the President of Syria to whom overtures have been made; they have captured the leadership of Arabs in Nazareth, Jaffa, and Acre, who are despairing of any effective help from Arab countries and are turning to Communism. (In Nazareth, for example, no one can hold or get a job without the permission of the Communist boss.) The USSR will help Israel expand until the Arab Governments as well as British and American policies are completely discredited. The Russians will then decide whether to make a puppet of the Zionists or of the Arabs -- if the situation in the Near East continues to degenerate, Russia may find both parties begging for t...

18 March 1949 The United Nations is already completely discredited in the minds of the Arab Governments and the Arab peoples. There are many reasons for this, but the evidence usually cited is the failure of the UN or the Mediator to enforce UN orders to Israel. For example: (a) To prevent arms and Czechoslovakian airplanes from reaching Israel. (b) To deliver the assassins of Count Bernadotte, although their identity is known to hundreds of Jews. (c) To repatriate or compensate over half a million refugees. (d) To permit UN observers with Israeli forces when they are on the offensive. (e) To retire to the lines occupied at the October 14 "cease fire" period. (f) To evacuate areas given to the Arabs by the UN proposal of November 29, 1947, although at the same time insisting upon invading the Negeb, to excuse which they quote the same UN partition proposal. (The Arab areas occupied in defiance of the UN, include Western Galiles, Jaffa, Nazareth, and villages over the Lebanon ...

18 March 1949 Since the Arab military defeats and the complete rebuff of the Arab position at the United Nations Assembly in Paris, the Arab League has practically disappeared as a political force and the several Arab countries are pursuing nationalistic policies looking for allies and friends. Only Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and perhaps Lebanon have a good chance to succeed in maintaining their independence by following the new isolationist policy. Saudi Arabia alone follows a completely realistic policy of refusing to commit suicide for sentimental or fanatical reasons. Egypt is still internally insecure and with recurring assassinations and riotage may face internal upheaval and the liquidation of the upper classes. Iraq, potentially wealthy in natural resources, would be the first to fall into Communist control. Although intelligent leaders have managed to hold Syria together, it is believed by some foreign diplomats and many Arab leaders that Syria, as a nation, will break up in two or ...

18 March 1949 The establishment of the State of Israel by force with intimidation of Arab governments by the US and the USSR, with the cutting off of British arms and ammunition (the Arabs' only source of supply), with ample sources for Israel of munitions and finance, the Israeli battle-victory is complete, but it has solved nothing. If boundaries to an Israeli State, any boundaries, had been set and guaranteed by the Great Powers, peace might return to the area. On the contrary, we have actually a victorious state which is limited to no frontiers and which is determined that no narrow limits shall be set. The Near East is faced with the almost certain prospect of a profound and growing disturbance by Israel which may last for decades. (a) Instead of restoring the boundaries of the Province of Judea as they were in 70 AD, the Israeli leaders now state freely though usually unofficially, their demand for an ever-expanding empire. Their present possessions are regarded by them as on...

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY INFORMATION REPORT 18 Mar 1949 Country: Israel/Arab States Subject: Observations Concerning Palestine and the Arab Countries The Military Situation in Palestine The new State of Israel is strong in military equipment, finances, and morale, and possesses a striking power which could easily seize the remainder of Palestine as well as adjacent parts of Lebanon, Syria, or of Egypt north of the Suez Canal. It is probable that the next military adventure will be to annex the Jerusalem area. The Arabs cannot successfully renew the appeal to arms: they lack unity, leadership, arms and airplanes. This is a striking reversal of the situation as it was on June 1, 1948. Israel then was screaming to high Heaven for a "cease fire" order from the United Nations, whereupon the Great Powers forced the first truce using explicit threats to Arab countries failing to comply. At that time, the Arabs, assured by treaty with Britain of continued supply of arms and ammuni...