III. Arab Politics

18 March 1949

Since the Arab military defeats and the complete rebuff of the Arab position at the United Nations Assembly in Paris, the Arab League has practically disappeared as a political force and the several Arab countries are pursuing nationalistic policies looking for allies and friends.

Only Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and perhaps Lebanon have a good chance to succeed in maintaining their independence by following the new isolationist policy. Saudi Arabia alone follows a completely realistic policy of refusing to commit suicide for sentimental or fanatical reasons. Egypt is still internally insecure and with recurring assassinations and riotage may face internal upheaval and the liquidation of the upper classes.

Iraq, potentially wealthy in natural resources, would be the first to fall into Communist control. Although intelligent leaders have managed to hold Syria together, it is believed by some foreign diplomats and many Arab leaders that Syria, as a nation, will break up in two or three years, with autonomous shaikhdoms in Aleppo, Homs and Hama, a Kurdish puppet province in the Jezireh, and with the Jebel Druze delivering Damascus to Abdulla of Trans-Jordan unless the Israelis get Damascus first.

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